I've won every state when making an effort to, but Alaska just fell into my lap. I wound up building an HQ there so as to not waste stamina when I went there to pick up a political opportunity, and my opponent never touched it, so my awareness was virtually maxed out while theirs was <30%.
I'm beginning to think I might be better off playing Carter vs. Reagan without maxing out my stamina. 10 weeks is a long time to be doing almost nothing. His mediocre fundraising ability isn't helping me any, either. Lost this last game with 250 electoral votes...and you'll never believe the states I lost. Vermont, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Connecticut, Rhode Island...I was spread too thin.
I'm almost thinking I may have forgotten how to play this game. 
EDIT: Crushed Reagan with a slightly different playstyle-landslided him with Carter. No longer as concerned about the next three guys-it appears I've gotten my groove back, so to speak. While I did lose Nevada this time, again, I did so while winning, among other things, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, etc. 362 to 176.
Also managed to do the above while "wasting" the first 10 weeks maxing my stamina. 
Seriously? UTAH? Seriously? 20 D, 24 I, 56 R, and I win it?