OK - skimmed through all the way up to the 20 min mark. At 20:50 - all characters have about the same level, relatively even on flags. Kalel/rawrrrr are tearing through towers (it is qot + rook, after all). kalel/rawrr (light) have torn down the entire right side and the dark side tower by the HP flag. All of kale/rawr towers are still standing. WS is about even at 5000 or so a piece. Both teams have priests. Rawrr/kalel get angels/cats very soon after they come up.
at about 27 min, orc/mc get angels - center is torn down.
As of 28:45, kale/rawr tear down the remaining portal side towers on dark hp side. Their creeps have torn through the 1st layer of towers at mid. Mcshane crashes et al at 29 min marker or so.
Thoughts - at the time mcshane crashed out, kalel/rawrrr had a clear advantage. The question was, what are the odds that they could have turned that advantage into a win.
So - if its decision time, the match DOES NOT go to mcshane/orcun. Could they have still won? Yes. Did it look like they were going to win? No.
Should Rawrrr/Kalel get the win? Based on what I saw, maybe. If I had to bet, I'd say they were 60-65% favored to win at the time of the disconnect. So, odds are they would win, but its not a done deal. If we gave a win to them here, there would be a big ol * next to it.
Anyway, obviously the d/c sucks, more so for rawrrrr/kalel than mcshane/orc imo. My thought is still the same as it was before I watched the replay though: toss it out and have a rematch.