XeronX

Join Date 06/2006

Need solid information on Piracy numbers.

In another thread (one of the numerous about the effect of piracy) someone made an assertation that Demigod, a game produced by SD had on opening day 18000 registered users and 180000 pirated users on the servers.

Now these number sound so outrageous to me as to seem they have to be complete BS. But I do try to find the nuggets of facts before I take a stance. Doesn't always work I'm human but I try.

But since DG was a SD release and this is a SD game forum. I am wondering if we could get actual hard number from the source. I don't want linked news articles since i tend to veiw the news nowadays with a trepid wariness. I woiuld like to see a actual SD employee in the know who was willing to get on here and shed some actual light on this case. And if possible the criteria that makes you decide if a game is a legit copy or a pirated copy.

I am aware that inside info like this may not be releasable and if that is the case please just say so, I would be perfactly happy with that as in of itself it would tend to prove that the numbers thrown around tend to be exxagerations used to make whatever point the author is trying to convey.

But as a person who hasn't pirated a game since my 386 days over a two decades ago when I was to young to really understand the fundamentals of the issue and why one should not. I am really curious as to whether this is as wide spread as some developers make it to be. Or if it is as others are saying it is just bad Dev's and bad Executives trying to cover their asses on their margin spreads.

And to be honest, I think this may be the only Dev I would actually trust to play it straight. I am not sure becuase I only have the impressions off this forum since joining beta to go by. But the frankness and openess of communications actually lend itself to your crediability.

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I'm nearly 100% positive that they keep that confidential, but it would be interesting to see their estimates if they could share

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Two journals Brad made about Demigod had some information, including the number of server access requests that were denied on launch. Here's one, I can't find the other. Check the Demigod Journals and you'll find it eventually.

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why, because google is too hard for you to use?

http://kotaku.com/5215528/demigod-18000-customers-100000-pirates-%5Bupdate%5D

and sorry, it was ~100,000. but my point stands.

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Quoting ZehDon,

reply 2

As to this post while it does help.

1 it does not list sales numbers, and if it did it also says didn't factor in DD sales.

Quoting -RAISTLIN-,

reply 3

why, because google is too hard for you to use?

http://kotaku.com/5215528/demigod-18000-customers-100000-pirates-%5Bupdate%5D

and sorry, it was ~100,000. but my point stands.

As for this post, it is 3rd party reporting and in it, it states that it was 18000 concurrent users on the server, not 18000 copies sold. That right there negates the aurgument that has been forwarded that implied these numbers represented 18000 sales and 100000+ pirated copies.

In fact what this does illustrate to me is of that 100000 pirates most of those were probably pirates that tried multiple times with each DoS and got counted as a seperate entity each attempt.

So if anything it tends to lead me to beleive from this article solely that pirating while a big issue, isn't the issue that it is made out to be.

It only get refuted by the first article which was it appears to be written by Brad himself that even makes me think there is more to it than that. Unfortunately without hard numbers I just can't bring myself to condemn yet.

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well.. if you're looking for sales numbers.. Brad has definitely stated those are confidential and that they won't release those.

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The “third party reporting” got its info straight from stardock (it even says that in the article ffs). So what?

OK, so there were more than 18,000 sales. But there were still more than 100K pirates at the 1 time, which also means that there were more than 100K pirates in total. So, it is still reasonable to assume based on these numbers, that there were substantially more pirates than legit users at launch.

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Okay well lets look at the facts,

18000 users on line mean that they are online for more than an instant.

Where as by that same logic it would have to mean that to make this story correct and factual, they would have had to by extension to do a DoS (Denial of Service) to 100000+ requests in the same instant that those 18000 users were in.

That can you say with any credibility that they did 100k plus DoS's in an instant. I am sorry but that just doesn't sound even in the realm of possibility. Could I be wrong, hell yes, I don't have acsess to the information there statements were based on. But is it more likely that that 100k figure was a total of the denied request over a peroid of time, Yes.

And in the absense of the facts I am left to interpret the information the best I can with the knowledge I have at hand.

Could it be wrong, Yes

Is my understanding complete, No.

But I do not beleive everything that is spoon fed to me. Especially when I can see how one group might gain by misrepresenting facts.

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Well, I’m not sure which part of the article (or indeed DG’s launch woes) you don’t understand.

Brad stated

"[Demigod's] infrastructure was designed to handle up to 50,000 of these connections," said Wardell. "But on day 0, there were around 140,000 concurrent users of which 18,000 are validated. Pirated users can't get updates or play multiplayer but they still touch the servers."

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Quoting XeronX,

reply 7

Okay well lets look at the facts,

18000 users on line mean that they are online for more than an instant.

Where as by that same logic it would have to mean that to make this story correct and factual, they would have had to by extension to do a DoS (Denial of Service) to 100000+ requests in the same instant that those 18000 users were in.

That can you say with any credibility that they did 100k plus DoS's in an instant. I am sorry but that just doesn't sound even in the realm of possibility. Could I be wrong, hell yes, I don't have acsess to the information there statements were based on. But is it more likely that that 100k figure was a total of the denied request over a peroid of time, Yes.

And in the absense of the facts I am left to interpret the information the best I can with the knowledge I have at hand.

Could it be wrong, Yes

Is my understanding complete, No.

But I do not beleive everything that is spoon fed to me. Especially when I can see how one group might gain by misrepresenting facts.

Diddo

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It's "ditto" and you're wrong (as above).

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Anyways.....

He does bring up a good point if even at this point I am loathe to admit it.

Brad can you tell us if those 100k DoS's were truly concurrent or not?

I am pretty sure that would not violate any of the NDA's associated with companies policies.

P.S. Myfist0... That is one disturbing avatar btw. where did you get that from?

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Quoting XeronX,

reply 11

P.S. Myfist0... That is one disturbing avatar btw. where did you get that from?

I did an alien art search to be able to add races to Sins or avatars for the Sins community to keep the Alien spirit of the game.

Quoting -RAISTLIN-,

reply 10

It's "ditto" and you're wrong (as above).

Oh sorry.

DILDO

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Frogboy actually mentioned some numbers about Demigod a while back. I don't remember now what exactly they were in regards to, but I remember him saying something about Demigod and Piracy specifically. You might be able to get him to repeat that. Out of all the Game Company CEO's in the WORLD, Frogboy (Brad Wardell) is one of the ONLY ONE'S who will give you a HONEST ANSWER to a question about "Piracy". The CEO's of EA Games, Blizzard, and Activision will ALL Lie Their Asses Off about the numbers regarding piracy so they can try to milk some sympathy from the public and some action from Law Makers.

Yet another reason why I'm a fan and player of Stardock games. Honesty!!!

That goes real far in my book. He won't shove corporate BS at you just because it's the standard corporate BS. I also don't see what he would have to gain in lying about the numbers. It won't make Stardock any more or any less money from it then they've already made.

In conclusion, if he answers, you can bet the numbers will be Accurate if not Really Close to the Actual Numbers. There's no real reason for him to "stretch the truth".

Personally, I just don't think he's a "lying" type of guy. Usually though I think most businessmen and corporate and political types are ALL full of BS. Frogboy's one of the few exceptions to the rule.

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LOL as usual Raven I prretty much agree with your assessment which is why I am even bothering asking here. If this were any other company I would assume all information goes through PR and Marketing to assess the impact that information would have on the bottom line. And that it would be tailoered to fit what they wanted it to convey.

But Brad has earned from me a respect that I will say ( and is obviously apperent to anyone reading my posts) is rare for me to have in anyone in a position such as his. Will I beleive what he says unconditionally, nope I don't ever beleive anyone unconditionally.

But from what I have observed of his person I would definitely give his statements a considerable amount more weight than anyone lese's in that position. And his imput at this point would very much influence my oppinion on this matter.

I have read his post about the Demigod incident, unfortunately there are a few questions I have stated above that I need some clarification on before I can form what I would consider a valid stance.

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Quoting XeronX,

reply 7

... they would have had to by extension to do a DoS (Denial of Service) to 100000+ requests in the same instant that those 18000 users were in...

The 18,000 odd users on the first day (of which I was one) would've been experiencing connectivity problems due to Raknet melting in the real world situation and thus been re-trying their connections. In order to exceed the server limits, some 32,001 pirates would've needed to connect to the servers as well.
As the problem with Raknet was unforseen and the servers were overloaded, multiple instances of a person's connection could've also been 'connected' (we see this from time to time even now). The combinations of bad networking and pirates would've created a pool of players where by any connection from some 68,000 excess players would've made a mess of things. Since pirates weren't just checking connectivity and leaving when denied - the retail version of Demigod checked for updates before anything else and thus the pirates couldn't help but attempt a connection - it's not entirely unlikely that it occured exactly as Brad has described.

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Quoting ZehDon,

reply 15

Quoting XeronX,
reply 7
... they would have had to by extension to do a DoS (Denial of Service) to 100000+ requests in the same instant that those 18000 users were in...

The 18,000 odd users on the first day (of which I was one) would've been experiencing connectivity problems due to Raknet melting in the real world situation and thus been re-trying their connections. In order to exceed the server limits, some 32,001 pirates would've needed to connect to the servers as well.
As the problem with Raknet was unforseen and the servers were overloaded, multiple instances of a person's connection could've also been 'connected' (we see this from time to time even now). The combinations of bad networking and pirates would've created a pool of players where by any connection from some 68,000 excess players would've made a mess of things. Since pirates weren't just checking connectivity and leaving when denied - the retail version of Demigod checked for updates before anything else and thus the pirates couldn't help but attempt a connection - it's not entirely unlikely that it occured exactly as Brad has described.

So I am not understanding the implications here.

Are you implying that it is possible that registered users due to losing conection and failing when trying to reconnect might have been also counted as pirates?

Or are you implying that the server was capable because of the update verification able to properly distinquish between pirate and registered having problems logging in?

Also does this imply that pirates that may have been trying to get through the firewall multiple times were counted as a single entity each attempt or a single entity for all of there attempts per pirate?

lol sorry trying not to be obtuse, reread your post 3 times, just can't quite figure out what you were trying to convey.

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Sorry, I'll try to explain more clearly.

Quoting XeronX,

reply 16

Are you implying that it is possible that registered users due to losing conection and failing when trying to reconnect might have been also counted as pirates?

No, I meant that users were being disconnected and rejected from the servers when they were overloaded. This meant that it wasn't a case of 18,000 user connection attemps VS 100,000 pirate connection attempts, the numbers of times the servers were contacted was much, much higher.

Quoting XeronX,

reply 16

Brad spoke in terms of user numbers, and distinguishing between unique contacts would've been built into the server, so no - each attempt only counted as one entity, however that single entity made numerous connect attempts. As I mentioned, the release version of Demigod attempted to update when the program was launched as opposed to checking when the player went online. This forced a large volume of traffic onto the servers from pirates whenever a pirate opened their version of Demigod. It most likely wasn't intentional for the pirates to attempt to connect to Stardock's server - most pirates know when they pirate a game that they are unable to play online due to authentication. This oversight in the game's update checking caused more than 100,000 pirate connection attempts - a pirate would've been experiencing similar problems to registered users, and thus would've been opening and closing their game a lot during the first day or so, and every time they did they tried to contact Stardock's servers, thus causing the issue.

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